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DAVID SLATER’S ANALYSIS OF YOUR DRAFTING SKILLS – WERE YOU WORSE THAN ME? (Probably)

Here a spreadsheet prepared by Mr Slater, proud coach of the Salt Like City Dechlorinators (which should be Desalinators), analysing the draft position against the points out-turn of players to the end of week 14. It’s quite good.

Playoff Week 2 Preview

All the stats are in a window somewhere below – here’s my analysis of the fixtures coming up this week.

Power Rankings for all performance to the end of week 14:

Seed | Team | Percent | League Seed
1. Chicken Dancers – 0.682 – 5
2. All Stars – 0.659 – 1
3. Colliders – 0.617 – 6
4. Blue-Ballers – 0.513 – 2
5. Decholorinators – 0.490 – 7
6. Bounty Program – 0.464 – 11 (ahead on points scored tie-breaker)
7. Penetrators – 0.464 – 8
8. Given Sunday II – 0.455 – 3
9. Saints – 0.425 – 9
10. Jerk Store – 0.419 – 12
11. Tasty Stew – 0.412 – 4
12. Magic – 0.399 – 10

Chris (Power Ranked #1, Seeded 5) vs Dan Smith (#2/1)

Top two ranked teams in the league – head to head season record of 7-7, with Chris outscoring Dan by 80 points (1395 – 1315)
Chris is the league top scorer, Dan 3rd top scorer.
Chris won the last 4 weeks match-ups, and 6 of last 7.
Chris has scored over 100 points each of the last 4 weeks, the longest such streak by anyone in the league this year (2nd Dan Sayles with 3 weeks (11-13).
Chris and Dan have the joint fewest scores of 70 or lower (2).
Over the last 5 weeks, Dan’s total head to head score across the league is 43-12 (.782). Chris is 48-7 (.873).
Chris and Dan have the most 100+ scores this season (6 each), joint with Max.

Benjamin (#4/2) vs Max (#3/6)

3rd & 4th power ranked teams, Max holds a 9-5 lead in the head to head table and has outscored Ben by 133 (1328 – 1195)
Max is the 2nd top scorer in the league, Ben is 5th.
Ben won 5 of first 6 head to heads, but has lost 8 in a row.
Max has topped 100 points in 5 of the last 8 weeks.
Ben has 3 100+ scores, week 9 was the last.
Ben didn’t score under 70 in weeks 1-10 but has 3 times in last 4 weeks.
Max’s lowest score came in week 13 but any hope that might bring Ben is scuppered as he scored his second highest score in week 14.
Ben averaged 101.4 points weeks 1-5, 76.44 week 6 onwards
Ben’s form in the last 5 weeks is 14-41 (.255) – worst in the league. Max’s form is 39-16 (.709)

Winner’s Consolation Ladder (the losing winners…)

Gareth (#8/3) vs Manboob (#11/4)

Top two over-performing teams (final position vs power ranking).
Series is tied 7-7, with Gareth outscoring Manboob by 17 (1140 – 1123).
Manboob won week 14 but lost 3 previous weeks.
Manboob averaged 95.8 points for weeks 5-9, 71.55 for the other 9 weeks of the season.
Manboob’s form over the last 5 weeks is 16-39 (.291), Gareth’s is 21-34 (.382)

Consolation (Losers’) Ladder

Top Rung – Ben (#9/9) vs Mike Elmes (#7/8)

Mike leads the series 9-5 but Ben has outscored him by 34 points (1154 – 1120)
Mike has won the past 3 weeks, and 4 of last 5.
Mike has 4 100+ scores this season, but 6 scores of 70 or under (joint most with Tim). That leaves just 4 scores of 71-99 – the fewest scores in this range of all players.
Ben’s form over the last 5 weeks is 15-40 (.273), Mike is 28-27 (.509)

Middle Rung – Dan Sayles (#6/11) vs David (#5/7)

Series tied at 7-7 with Dan outscoring David by 46 (1215 – 1169)
Dan has won last 4 weeks.
David averaged 91 points weeks 1-4, 80.5 since then, 74.25 in the last 4 weeks.
Dan has averaged 111.75 in the last 4 weeks of the season, but only 76.8 over the first 10 weeks of the season, and only 67 over the first 5 weeks which is why he didn’t make the playoffs.
Dan has 4 100+ scores (including three straight in weeks 11-13) and 5 70 or lower (last in week 9).
Form: Dan 44-11 (0.800), David 24-31 (.436).

Bottom Rung – Mark (#10/12) vs Tim (#12/10)

Mark leads the series 9-5 and has outscored Tim by 11 points (1119-1108).
Mark won 6 in a row weeks 4-9, last five (most recent first) W-L-W-W-L.
Tim averaged 102.25 over weeks 1-4, but has since averaged 69.9 over the last 10 weeks.
Tim has 2 100+ scores, weeks 1 & 3. Weeks 5-14 featured only 1 80+ score and 6 scores of 70 or less.
Tim & Mark are the only people averaging fewer than 80 points per game.
Mark only has 1 100+ score (fewest), but only 3 sub-70 scores (league best is 2, 5 people have 3)
Form: Mark 19-36 (.345), Tim 17-38 (.309)

UPDATED STATS SHEET

Everything you need to know is now on this sheet:

Playoff Preview:

(NB: All head-to-head data is based on the idea of if they had played each other every week of the 13 week season.)

Chris (Power Ranked 1) vs Manboob (=11):

Chris leads 11-2 head-to-head – the most dominant any one player is over another over the course of the season.
The 2 Manboob wins were in weeks 6 & 7, the only 2 weeks he scored over 100 points.
Chris is the second most dominant player in the league over the last 3 weeks – vs the other 11 players over those 3 weeks (ie in 33 match-ups) he has only 2 losses – both to Dan Sayles, the most dominant player.
Manboob has benefited most from the fixture list and has a Power Rnanking of joint 11th (12th if points scored is used as a tie-breaker).

Gareth (6) vs Max (3)

Max leads the series 7-6 and has scored 126 more points than Gareth this season.
Max won 6 head-to-head games striaght from week 7 to week 12 but lost in week 13 with his season low score of 59.
Max has topped 100 points 5 times this season (joint most with Chris and Dan Smith), and is over 100 in 4 of the last 7 weeks, 3 of last 5.
Gareth has over 100 points 3 times, but only once since week 3.

Loser Ladder:

David (5) vs Mike E (8)

David leads series 8-5 and outscores Mike by 83 points.
Wins/losses are spaced evenly, no streaks. Last 5: David-Mike-David-Mike-David
David scored 100+ in 3 of the first 4 weeks, no 100+ scores since.
Mike has 3 tons too, in weeks 6, 7 and 10.

Ben (=11) vs Tim (10)

Ben leads series 7-6 and has scored 17 more points than Tim.
Tim was top scored in weeks 1 and 3 but has recorded 6+ wins in a week on 2 other occasions.
Ben top scored in week 4 but bottom scored in week 13. He has only 3 weeks (including week 4) when he has recorded 6+ wins in a week – the last of these was week 5 when he beat 8 other players.

Dan Sayles (7) vs Mark (9)

Dan leads series 7-6 and has 82 more points than Mark.
Dan has the best form over the last 3 weeks, only losing 1 of 33 match-ups (to Chris in week 13).
Mark has fewer 100+ scores than anyone else (1).
Mark and Tim have the same number of wins in the Power Rankings (61 of 143 match-ups) but edges above him due to one extra tie.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

I think the best analysis to be done around this is based on how well you score each week compared to everyone else. There are 12 people in the league and what your opponent does each week has no impact on what you do – it just sets you a target to get over. Ultimately, success comes down to how much luck the schedule shines down on you. You could score the second lowest score of all teams each week and have a perfect record if you were paired with the worst scoring team each week. Likewise, you could be winless even if you scored the 2nd most each week.

With this in mind I did a tab looking at how well each player’s score compared to everyone else’s each week – the tab labelled ‘Head to Head’. This pairs you against everyone each week and gives you an individual record against each player. Take an average of your 11 records to get your average record against all players, all weeks – ie a true reflection on how your team is doing.

The tables can be seen at the top right of the page, not sorted into any kind of order, and not formatted in any way to make them easy to ready. However, it basically boils down to a list of twelve names, in order of performance:

Seed | Team | Percent | League Seed
1. All Stars – 0.624 – 2
2. Chicken Dancers – 0.612 – 9
2. Colliders – 0.612 – 5
4. Blue-Ballers – 0.574 – 1
5. Decholorinators – 0.517 – 7
6. Saints – 0.467 – 6
7. Given Sunday II – 0.463 – 4
8. Penetrators – 0.450 – 10
9. Jerk Store – 0.446 – 11
10. Tasty Stew – 0.442 – 3
11. Magic – 0.426 – 8
12. Bounty Program – 0.368 – 12

As this shows, Tasty Stew and, to a lesser extent, Given Sunday II have benefitted the most from a schedule playing into their hands, while the Chicken Dancers in particular have been screwed, ranking 7 places below where they should rightly be.

I have benefitted from a small modicum of luck…

A very quick outline of the simple analysis I did on the tab in the above file labelled Simple Luck Quotient (NB this was all to week 10 and I;ve now gone and put week 11 data in which has changed a lot of things. Besides, I don’t think this is a great measure):

I looked at the standard deviation (STDEV) in scoring for each team, which is basically a formula which measures the amount of variation there is in a set of numbers. As we have a small set of numbers we would expect to potentially see quite a bit of variation.

For each team, I halved the STDEV and added it to and subtracted from the average score to give an upper and lower expected score – ie a range of scores it would be reasonable to expect your weekly score to fall between. There is no mathematical logic to using 0.5 STDEV, but it seems to work quite well here.

If, in an individual week, you scored above your expected range you got +1 Luck Quotient (LQ), if you scored below your range you got -1LQ. If your score was in the expected range you got 0.

I did the same for your opponents score, except inverted – ie if they scored higher you got -1LQ, lower +1LQ.

This gave the following summary (positive number = lucky, negative number = unlucky):

Benjamin Hendy: LQ = 1
Mark Simpson: LQ = 1
Gareth Simpsons: LQ = 4
Geoffrey Manboob: LQ = 2
Ben Archer: LQ = -1
Dan Smith: LQ = 5
Dan Sayles: LQ = -4
Chris Braithwaite: LQ = -2
Max Cubberley: LQ = -2
Tim Travers: LQ = -2
Mike Elmes: LQ = -1
David Slater: LQ = 0

A poorly organised spreadsheet can be seen above. You’ll have to find yourself via initials, and work out the formulas for yourselves, for now. Though I might make it nicer later.